000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211148
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 21 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low
pressure located just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico
has continued to increase, but remains disorganized.  Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form in two or three days as the
system moves slowly toward the west-northwest or west.  Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rains are expected over
portions of southwestern Mexico during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart