000
ABPZ20 KNHC 112318
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 11 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large low pressure area centered about 260 miles south-southeast
of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, continues to produce showers and
thunderstorms.  The surface circulation is gradually becoming better
defined, and this system could become a tropical depression or
tropical storm at any time during the next day or so.  The low is
forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, away from the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers centered a few hundred
miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated
with a surface trough.  Environmental conditions are forecast to
become increasingly conducive for development, and a tropical
cyclone is likely to form early next week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake