000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162305
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jul 16 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fernanda, located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 350 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, continue to
show signs of organization.  Upper-level winds are moderately
conducive for further development, and this system will likely
become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it
moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An area of low pressure centered about 850 miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja peninsula has become better defined
during the past day or so.  Although environmental conditions are
only marginally conducive, this system has the potential to become a
tropical depression during the next couple of days before upper-
level winds become unfavorable for development. The low is expected
to move slowly to the west or west-northwest during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Yet another area of low pressure is expected to form in the far
eastern Pacific south of Mexico in a few days.  Conditions appear
favorable for some development of this system by late weekc while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake