000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161733
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 16 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fernanda, located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area located about
200 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has become a little
better defined today.  In addition, the associated showers and
thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization. Although
upper-level winds are not particularly conducive for additional
development, this system is still likely to become a tropical
depression during the next couple of days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized
during the past several hours in association with a broad area of
low pressure located about 850 miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja peninsula. Some slow development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days before upper-level winds
become unfavorable for development.  This system is expected to
move slowly westward or west-northwestward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi