000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152320
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jul 15 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fernanda, located well to the southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.

Shower activity associated with a broad low pressure system centered
a couple of hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico has become a
little better organized over the past 24 hours.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to be somewhat conducive for gradual
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form by early next week while the system moves slowly toward
the west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers located several hundred miles
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure.  Development, if any, is expected to be slow to occur as
the system moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven