000
ABPZ20 KNHC 210502
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU OCT 20 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small but well-defined low pressure area is centered about 750
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Shower activity associated with this low has not become
any better organized this evening, but conditions still favor the
formation of a tropical cyclone before upper-level winds become too
strong for formation in about a day.  The low is expected to drift
northward or northwestward over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Disorganized cloudiness and showers located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a
broad area of low pressure.  Environmental conditions are forecast
to become more favorable for some development of this disturbance
over the weekend and early next week while the system moves toward
the west-northwest at about 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila