000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202310
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU OCT 20 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased today in association
with a small, well-defined low pressure area centered about 700
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Although upper-level winds are not particularly
conducive for further development, only a small increase in the
organization of the thunderstorm activity could result in the
formation of a tropical cyclone before upper-level winds become
too strong for formation.  The low is expected to drift northward
or northwestward over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Disorganized cloudiness and showers located a few hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with a broad
area of low pressure.  Environmental conditions are forecast to
become more favorable for some development of this disturbance over
the weekend and early next week while the system moves toward the
west-northwest at about 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown