000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221740
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large disturbance located about 850 miles south of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula is associated with a broad area
of low pressure.  While this system is producing a large area of
shower and thunderstorm activity, there are no signs yet of a well-
defined surface circulation.  However, environmental conditions
appear favorable for a tropical depression to form during the next
couple of days.  This disturbance is forecast to move toward the
northwest and then northward during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Showers and thunderstorms have diminished in association with a weak
area of low pressure located about 1150 miles east-southeast of the
Big Island of Hawaii.  Development of this system is not expected
while it moves slowly westward into the central North Pacific basin
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan