000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220511
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disturbed weather located about 850 miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is associated
with a broad area of low pressure. This system is still disorganized
but conditions are favorable for a tropical depression to form in a
couple of days.  This disturbance is forecast to move toward the
northwest and then northward during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak area of low
pressure located about 1200 miles  east-southeast of the Big
Island of Hawaii remain poorly organized. Additional development of
this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it moves
slowly westward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila