000
ABPZ20 KNHC 170515
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Orlene, located well west of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A broad area of low pressure located about 400 miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce a large area of showers
and thunderstorms, but recent satellite data indicate that the
circulation has not become any better defined.  Still, conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected
to form later today or on Sunday while this system moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph a few hundred miles offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of low pressure could form early next week several hundred
miles southwest of southern Mexico.  Some gradual development is
possible by midweek while the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg