000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041726
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN SEP 4 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system located
about 250 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has become
better defined today.  In addition, the associated showers and
thunderstorms are showing signs of organization, and a tropical
depression will likely form later today or tonight.  This low is
expected to move generally northwestward, and interests in
southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of this system.

Regardless of whether or not development occurs, the system is
already bringing very heavy rains and gusty winds to southwestern
Mexico, and these conditions are likely to continue for the next
couple days.  Total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with
isolated totals up to 15 inches are possible across the southern
Mexico states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and
Nayarit.  These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of low pressure could form in a couple of days more than one
thousand miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Development, if any, of this system should be slow to
occur while the low meanders.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Another area of low pressure is expected to form later this week
several hundred miles south or southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Some
gradual development of this system is possible after that time while
it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi