000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031746
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 3 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a low
pressure area extend for several hundred miles near and offshore of
the southern coast of Mexico.  Satellite images indicate that the
low pressure area remains elongated with no well-defined center.
However, upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for
development, and this area of disturbed weather is likely to
consolidate and become a tropical depression on Sunday or Monday
while it moves nearly parallel to the southwest coast of Mexico.

Regardless of development, the system is expected to bring gusty
winds and very heavy rains to southwestern Mexico.  Total rainfall
amounts of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals up to 15 inches are
expected through the weeekend into early next week over the southern
Mexico states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and
Nayarit.  These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides, especially in areas of mountaineous terrain.
Interests in these areas and Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of low pressure could form in a few days about 1500 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Any development of this system should be slow to occur while the
system moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake