000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011132
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU SEP 1 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with a trough of low pressure located several hundred
miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while the low
moves west-northwestward or northwestward near the coast of Mexico.
Interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this disturbance.  Locally heavy rain, flash
floods and mud slides are possible in those areas starting tomorrow
and continuing through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A weak area of low pressure is located about 1000 miles south-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
This system is expected to drift westward during the next few days,
and any development should be slow to occur due to strong
upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake