000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222340
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON AUG 22 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kay, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms location about 900
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this
week as the low moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

A broad area of low pressure has formed about 500 miles
south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  The associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, but environmental
conditions are favorable for continued development during the next
several days.  A tropical depression is likely to form later this
week while the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown