000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221741
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 22 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kay, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 900 miles south of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula have become slightly better organized
today. Environmental conditions are conducive for continued gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week as the low moves west-northwestward at around
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

An area of disturbed weather has formed a few hundred miles south
through southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  An area of low
pressure is expected to form from this disturbance several hundred
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in
a couple of days, where environmental conditions are likely to be
conducive for development.  A tropical depression could form later
this week while the low moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain