000
ABPZ20 KNHC 211747
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Estelle, located more than 1100 miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Satellite wind data show that the area of low pressure centered
about 300 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, has a well-defined
center and is producing winds of tropical storm force. Shower and
thunderstorm activity has continued to become better organized, and
advisories will be initiated on this system as a tropical storm
this afternoon while it moves northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized this
morning in association with an area of low pressure located about
900 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  While environmental conditions are expected to be only
marginally conducive for additional development, only a slight
increase in organization would result in the formation of a tropical
depression later today while the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan