000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202342
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Estelle, located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple
of days while it moves generally northwestward at about 10 mph to
the south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Shower activity associated with a low pressure area located
almost 1000 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has become a little better organzed since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for
some additional development of this system during the next few days
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake