000
ABPZ20 KNHC 110513
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Celia, located more than 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in organization since
yesterday in association with a broad area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days
while the low moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph,
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico later this week.  Some subsequent
development of this system is possible while it moves westward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan