000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101201
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Blas, located about 1300 miles east
of the Big Island of Hawaii, and on Tropical Storm Celia, located
more than 800 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  However,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of this week while the low moves west-northwestward to
westward at about 10 mph, away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart