000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201130
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN SEP 20 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 175 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula are showing some signs of organization,
however, satellite wind data indicate that the circulation remains
elongated and lacks a well-defined center.  This system still has
the potential to become a tropical depression today while it moves
north-northwestward or northward at 10 to 15 mph, and interests in
the Baja California peninsula should monitor its progress.  The low
will be moving over cooler waters and into an area of strong
upper-level winds tonight, which should lessen the chance of
tropical cyclone formation.  Regardless of development, moisture
associated with this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rains
across portions of the Baja California peninsula and northwestern
Mexico today, and over portions of southern California and Arizona
on Monday and Tuesday. These rains could produce life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides, especially in mountainous areas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown