000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200539
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 19 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in association
with an elongated low pressure system located about 250 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This
system still has the potential to become a tropical depression on
Sunday while it moves north-northwestward or northward at 10 to 15
mph, and interests in the Baja California peninsula should monitor
its progress. By late Sunday, however, the low is expected to
encounter strong upper-level winds and cooler waters, which should
prevent tropical cyclone formation.  Regardless of development,
moisture associated with this disturbance is expected to produce
heavy rains across portions of the Baja California peninsula and
northwestern Mexico on Sunday, and over portions of southern
California and Arizona on Monday and Tuesday. These rains could
produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in
mountainous areas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

A small area of disturbed weather located about 1300 miles east-
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii is not showing any signs of
development at this time.  This system has moved westward into the
central Pacific, and future information on this disturbance can be
found in products issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in
Honolulu, Hawaii.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart