000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192340
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 19 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Last-light visible satellite imagery indicates that the area of low
pressure, located about 250 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula, has not become any better defined
since earlier today.  However, this system could still become a
tropical depression on Sunday while it moves north-northwestward or
northward at 10 to 15 mph, and interests in the Baja California
peninsula should monitor its progress. By late Sunday, however, the
low is expected to encounter strong upper-level winds and cooler
waters, which should prevent tropical cyclone formation.  Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, moisture associated with this
disturbance is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of
the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico this weekend,
and over portions of southern California and Arizona on Monday and
Tuesday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

An area of disturbed weather has formed about 1300 miles east-
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for slow development of this system
during the next few days as it drifts westward into the central
Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain