000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191734
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 19 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Visible satellite images confirm that the area of low pressure
located about 275 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula does not have a well-defined center of
circulation, although the associated shower and thunderstorm
activity has gradually become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions should be conducive for further development
during the next 24 hours, and a tropical depression could form
tonight or on Sunday while the system moves north-northwestward and
then northward at 10 to 15 mph.  By Sunday night, strong upper-level
winds and colder water should prevent tropical cyclone formation.
Interests on the Baja California peninsula should monitor the
progress of this low.  Regardless of tropical cyclone formation,
moisture from this system is expected to produce heavy rains across
portions of the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico,
and will spread northward into portions of southern California
and Arizona on Monday and Tuesday.  These rains could produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg