000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190533
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 18 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 400 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula continue to show signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are conducive for development during the
next day or so while this system moves generally north-northwestward
at around 10 mph.  After that time, colder water and strong upper-
level winds should prevent tropical cyclone formation if it has not
already occurred.  Regardless of development, moisture from this
system could produce heavy rain, life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides across portions of the Baja California peninsula and
northwestern mainland Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake