000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181144
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI SEP 18 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated surface trough extends several hundred miles off the
west-central coast of Mexico.  Showers and thunderstorms associated
with this system have increased over the past 24 hours, and a more
well-defined surface circulation is developing within this trough
about 350 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Some additional development of this system is possible
through this weekend while it moves generally northwestward at 5 to
10 mph.  After that time, colder water and stronger upper-level
winds near the Baja California peninsula should limit development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg