000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242344
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite imagery and satellite-derived surface winds indicate that
the low pressure system located about 1500 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has continued to
become better organized.  Environmental conditions are conducive
for additional development and only a slight increase in
organization would result in the formation of a tropical depression
tonight or Tuesday.  The low is expected to move slowly
westward and then west-northwestward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with
a tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development of this disturbance, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Roberts