000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231757
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN AUG 23 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The circulation associated with a slow-moving low pressure area
located about 1400 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has changed little in organization since
yesterday.  Cloudiness and shower activity also remains
disorganized. However, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this week while the low begins to moves west-
northwestward and then northwestward at 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extends
northeastward along a trough of low pressure located several
hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Development of this system is becoming
unlikely since it is expected to gradually lose its identity or
merge with the disturbance to its west.  The system should move
northwestward, and then west-northwestward at about 10 at 15 mph
over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A low pressure area is expected to form well southwest of the coast
of southwestern Mexico in a few days.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this week while this system moves
westward and then west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain