000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121730
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED AUG 12 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave located south of the southeastern coast of Mexico
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An area of low
pressure is forecast to form in association with this wave within a
couple of days a few hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of
Mexico. Environmental conditions should support development by later
this week, and a tropical cyclone will likely form late this weekend
or early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased this morning in
association with a low pressure area located about 1300 miles
east of the Big Island of Hawaii. Development of this system is
unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions while it moves
westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan