000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121134
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED AUG 12 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave located south of the southeastern coast of Mexico
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An area of low
pressure is forecast to form in association with this wave within a
couple of days a few hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of
Mexico. Environmental conditions should support development later
this week, and the system is likely to become a tropical cyclone by
later this weekend or early next week while it moves west-
northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Shower and thunderstorm activity increased overnight in association
with a low pressure area located about 1550 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. However,
development of this low seems unlikely before environmental
conditions become less favorable later today while it moves westward
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan