000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172332
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located more than a thousand miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Satellite images indicate that the large low pressure system located
about 620 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to become better organized.  This system is
expected to become a tropical depression later this evening or
early tomorrow while it moves generally westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure could form in several days a few hundred
miles south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Some
development of this system is expected by later this week while the
low moves roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake