000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161136
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST SAT NOV 16 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO.  STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE DISPLACING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AWAY FROM
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
STRONGER TODAY...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS BECOMING LESS
LIKELY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN