000
ABPZ20 KNHC 160528
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST FRI NOV 15 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO.  ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD STILL PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY
TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART