000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152343
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PST FRI NOV 15 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DEVELOP OVER THE DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI