000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151746
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PST FRI NOV 15 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD BUT WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE COAST OF MEXICO. AFTER THAT TIME...VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM ALSO
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN