000
ABPZ20 KNHC 150501
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PST THU NOV 14 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA
OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR 
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A 
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.  AFTER THAT
TIME...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND INTERACTION WITH LAND ARE
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN