000
ABPZ20 KNHC 010519
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU OCT 31 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON FRIDAY WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
 
&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH