000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311137
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU OCT 31 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
 
&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BERG