000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302343
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED OCT 30 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...
70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
 
&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN