000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192322
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT OCT 19 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...AND ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED THIS EVENING IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...
NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
5 DAYS. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE 
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE 
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN