000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191727
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 19 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR ON SUNDAY WHILE THIS
LOW MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...IS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI