000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132348
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OCTAVE...LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. 

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 825 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. 
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...ANY FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD LEAD TO
THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN