000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132150
TWOEP 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
250 PM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF FORMATION OF THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TO THE HIGH CATEGORY.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OCTAVE...LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. 

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...ANY FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION
WOULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WHILE IT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPZ35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE ARE ISSUED UNDER 
WMO HEADER WTPZ25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP5.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN