000
ABPZ20 KNHC 122339
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT OCT 12 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA
INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.  IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER
TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.  AFTER THAT...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AND DEVELOPMENT WILL BE UNLIKELY
TO OCCUR.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...
80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...HAS FORMED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE DISTURBANCE
TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN