000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111721
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI OCT 11 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO REMAINS
DISORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING A
LITTLE LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
STILL FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA