000
ABPZ20 KNHC 110531
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU OCT 10 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN