000
ABPZ20 KNHC 102336
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU OCT 10 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
...REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED.  HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
STILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN