000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101737
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NARDA...LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
HAVE BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY.  HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND THIS SYSTEM COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH