000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101132
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NARDA...LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
YESTERDAY.  HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH