000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091146
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED OCT 9 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NARDA...LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THIS
WEEKEND.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A 
HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE