000
ABPZ20 KNHC 082344
TWOEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 8 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NARDA...LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ENXT
SEVERAL DAYS...AND THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN